70% of the supply of Silver comes as a “by-product” of base metals, such as Lead, Zinc, Copper and to a lesser extent Gold. With the current race to find, develop and commercialize new Copper projects many are assuming that since it will operate a new copper supply over the coming years, it also means that there will be a lot of silver available …
For example, Copper production flows during the rest of the decade will be limited by fundamental considerations difficult to resolve … First, most projects have been mined for decades … Some for more than a century … Grades and reserves have decreased, while production costs have increased.
Another, substantially more problematic set of factors has the potential to pronounce “life and death” verdicts in many of today’s few exploration-to-production stories.
Just because a mine is producing does not mean that it will be “free at home” for the entire life of the mine.
Peru and Chile (responsible for 42% of world production) have recently called for a 75% tax on the production and the rewriting of water use agreements. Do not assume that because a mine is currently producing “x tons of Copper”, this source of supply is “free of charge” …
You start to hear a new phrase/concept. It’s called “electron liability” …
Essentially, these corporations are saying that they can no longer ignore where the Electricity that is being obtained from the grid is coming from …
For example, does it come from clean hydroelectric or nuclear power or dirty coal that emits Carbon? They can no longer hide behind the excuse of saying they didn’t know how the power was being generated. This should boost the fortunes of nuclear power by the end of the decade, but it raises another question mark for Copper …
Given these headwinds faced by the few copper deposits that are in operation, it is no exaggeration to assume that more New silver could come from the relatively few new primary silver mines.
Another is Navidad, a 700 million ounce silver resource located in the province of Chibut, Argentina, which has been impeded by the governor’s unwillingness to allow the use of cyanide. Each could contribute 25 million Ounces of Silver supply annually. But it seems that Pascua Lama will most likely never go into production. Even if Christmas were allowed tomorrow, it could take 5 years for it to start working.
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So if you have the feeling that until at least 2030, the new Silver won’t make a big difference. .. you are probably close to making a decision if you are interested in the precious metal.